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Losing Trick
Count - A hand evaluation technique originally described by F. Dudley
Courtenay's book "The System the
Experts Play", and popularized by Ron Klinger in his book "Modern Losing
Trick Count", based on counting effective losers in a trump contract.
Simply
stated, once partnership has identified a 8+ card suit fit (unless the opener
has a very strong-long major, e.g., a "self-sustaining suit"), each suit may
be evaluated as containing between 0 to 3 losers:
Aces and Kings
are not losers (except a singleton King)
Queens may or may not be
losers depending on the suit support.
Side suit adjustments to LTC include:
A J 10 [x...] = 1.5 losers, Q x x = 2.5 losers, while
J 10 x = 3 losers and Q x = 2 losers, but are a "plus". Here is a table to evaluate losers:
|
Pattern |
Losers |
|
|
|
|
Void |
0 |
|
A |
0 |
|
A K |
0 |
|
A K Q |
0 |
|
A K [x x...] |
1 |
|
A Q x |
1.5 |
|
A J 10 [x...] |
1.5 |
|
A x |
1 |
|
A x x [x...] |
2 |
|
K |
1 |
|
K x |
1 |
|
K x [x...] |
2 |
|
K Q |
1 |
|
Q J [x...] |
2 |
Once a trump
suit has been identified, a LTC calculation may be performed. The player's
LTC is subtracted from 12, with a maximum of 3 losers per suit. Thus, for
a side, both players maximum LTC is 24 (12 + 12). The combined LTC is subtracted from 24 to determine the
achievable playing tricks:
|
Max
LTC |
Opener
LTC |
Responder
LTC |
Combined
LTC |
Tricks
(Max - Combined LTC) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
24 |
7 |
9 |
16 |
24 - 16 = 8 |
|
24 |
6 |
8 |
14 |
24 - 14 = 10 |
|
24 |
5 |
9 |
14 |
24 - 14 = 10 |
|
24 |
4 |
9 |
13 |
24 - 13 = 11 |
|
24 |
4 |
8 |
12 |
24 - 12 = 12 |
|
24 |
4 |
7 |
11 |
24 - 11 = 13 |
Cover Cards
A player's High
Card Points are not directly convertible to LTC, instead based on hand shape and controlling honors. However, once a fit
is found, the following table provides a rough translation between HCP, LTC, and
"Cover Cards" (partner's Aces and King holdings).
Many players
find the math easier to subtract responder's Cover Cards from opener's LTC to
determine their side's anticipated losers. For instance:
Partner
opening bid equates to 6 LTC and responder has 3 cover cards
Then 6 - 3 = 3
losers; 3 losers equal 10 winners, enough for a major suit game.
(using LTC, the formula
is 6 LTC + 8
LTC = 14 LTC, where 24 - 14 LTC = 10 tricks)
|
Opening
Player's Call |
Typical
HCP |
Typical
LTC |
Typical
Cover Cards
(Aces & Kings) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Weak 2 (Non-Vul) |
4-10 |
7-9 |
1-2 |
|
Weak 2 (Vul) |
8-10 |
7 |
2 |
5-5 "Rule of 20"
(bare minimum) |
10-11 |
7 |
2 |
|
Minimum Opener |
12-14 |
8-9 |
3 |
|
Takeout Double |
12+ |
7 |
3+ |
|
Help Suit Game Try |
13-17 |
6 |
3-4 |
|
1NT |
15-17 |
Not Applicable*
(roughly
6) |
3-4 |
|
Weak 3 |
5-10 |
6 |
1-2 |
|
Jump Raise |
15-18 |
6 |
3-4 |
|
Reverse |
16-21 |
Not Applicable*
(roughly
5) |
4-5 |
|
2NT |
20-21 |
Not Applicable*
(roughly
5) |
4-5 |
|
Takeout & Suit Shift |
17-21 |
5 |
4-5 |
|
Strong Jump Shift |
19-21 |
4 |
4-5 |
|
2C Strong Opener |
22+ |
1-4 |
5+ |
|
Game Jump |
19-21 |
4-5 |
4-5 |
|
Splinter |
18-21 |
4-5 |
4-5 |
* Not Applicable
- since Losing Trick Count implies a trump fit, only a rough estimate can
be attributed to a hand where no partnership fit exists. Traditional use
of strength and associated High Card Points are better trick taking indicators
when partners do not have a fit. Of course, if responder makes a transfer
bid with opener subsequently showing a trump fit (as in the Texas Transfer or
opener's super aceptance), Losing Trick Count provides a sound foundation.
|
Responding
Player's Call |
Typical
HCP |
Typical
LTC |
Typical
Cover Cards
(Aces & Kings) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Advancer Takeout Minimum |
0-8 |
9 |
0-2 |
|
Minimum Raise |
6-9 |
9 |
1-2 |
|
1NT |
6-9 |
Not Applicable*
(roughly 9) |
1-2 |
|
New Suit |
6+ |
Not Applicable*
(roughly 1-9) |
1+ |
|
Jump Raise |
10-12 |
8 |
2-3 |
|
2NT |
11-12 |
Not Applicable*
(roughly 8) |
2-3 |
|
2 over 1 (Standard) |
11-12 |
Not Applicable*
(roughly 1-9) |
2-3 |
|
Advancer Takeout Medium |
9-11 |
8 |
2-3 |
|
Cuebid Opponent's Suit |
10+ |
1-8 |
2+ |
|
2 over 1 (Game Forcing) |
12+ |
Not Applicable*
(roughly 1-8) |
3+ |
|
Splinter |
8-12 |
6-8 |
2-3 |
|
Strong Jump Shift |
16+ |
5 |
4+ |
Also see
Hand
Evaluation Books
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